BTC Price Prediction: Will It Break $90,000 Before Year-End?

#BTC

• Technical Hurdle at Resistance: Bitcoin's price is testing the upper Bollinger Band near $91,870. A clean break above this level is needed to confirm a bullish breakout towards and beyond $90,000.
• Conflicted Market Sentiment: Positive long-term narratives (reserve currency, mining security) are clashing with near-term headwinds like significant ETF outflows and reported institutional selling pressure.
• Imminent Catalysts: The market is acutely aware that Bitcoin needs a 6.24% rally to avoid its first negative post-halving year, creating a tangible deadline and potential catalyst for upward movement as the year ends.

BTC Price Prediction

Technical Analysis: BTC Approaches Key Resistance

According to BTCC financial analyst Robert, Bitcoin is currently trading at $89,564.78, hovering near the upper Bollinger Band of $91,869.76. The price remains above the 20-day moving average of $88,409.34, indicating a near-term bullish structure. However, the MACD histogram is negative at -318.76, suggesting some underlying momentum weakness as the signal line (1096.74) remains above the MACD line (777.98). The immediate challenge is the $91,869 resistance. A sustained break above could accelerate gains, while a rejection may see a retest of the middle Bollinger Band near $88,409.

Market Sentiment: A Mix of Institutional Pressure and Long-Term Optimism

BTCC financial analyst Robert notes that current headlines paint a complex picture. Negative pressures are evident from significant spot ETF outflows ($782M) and reports of 'institutional pressure' causing volatility. Furthermore, Bitcoin's struggle to avoid its first post-halving down year requires a 6.24% rally, adding near-term urgency. Conversely, long-term bullish narratives persist, including discussions of Bitcoin's potential as a reserve currency amid US fiscal concerns and strategic corporate moves like MicroStrategy's financing. The surge in mining difficulty to 148.2 trillion also underscores robust network security and long-term commitment. The sentiment is cautiously optimistic but acknowledges significant headwinds.

Factors Influencing BTC’s Price

Bitcoin's Potential Role as a Reserve Currency Amid US Fiscal Concerns

Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, has reiterated Bitcoin's potential to serve as a reserve currency, arguing that it could provide a healthy counterbalance to the US dollar. "Bitcoin is good for the USD," he stated, emphasizing its role in curbing inflation and fiscal irresponsibility. Armstrong warned that without fiscal discipline, Bitcoin could gradually assume reserve status as confidence in traditional systems wanes.

The US national debt has surged past $38 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 120%. Economists echo Armstrong's concerns, suggesting that unchecked deficits may lead to a multipolar reserve currency landscape. Despite these challenges, Armstrong maintains that bitcoin could stabilize the dollar by enforcing monetary accountability.

Consumer price pressures persist, with September's CPI data reflecting ongoing inflation. Armstrong's commentary arrives as policymakers grapple with balancing technological innovation against macroeconomic stability—a tension that may define the next era of global finance.

Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Surges to 148.2 Trillion Amid Hash Power Arms Race

Bitcoin's mining difficulty has reached 148.2 trillion, marking a 35% increase since January as the network's computational power grows. This reset—the highest since adversarial forces clashed in 2025—positions the protocol for another leg up through 2026.

The upward trajectory reflects miners' aggressive capital expenditures during competitive cycles. While the current level remains below October 2025's peak of 156 trillion, it underscores the network's resilience and the escalating barriers for smaller operators.

Hashrate complexity now demands industrial-scale operations, squeezing marginal players. Every 2,016 blocks, the protocol auto-adjusts to maintain its 10-minute block target—a feature preserving decentralization ideals amid centralizing pressures.

Mirae Asset Group in Talks to Acquire South Korea's Korbit Exchange for Up to $100M

Mirae Asset Group is negotiating a potential $70M-$100M acquisition of Korbit, South Korea's fourth-largest cryptocurrency exchange. The deal, facilitated through Mirae Asset Consulting, targets NXC's 60.5% stake and SK Planet's 31.5% holding in the pioneer exchange.

Korbit's 2013 launch of Bitcoin-won trading marked a watershed moment for Korea's crypto ecosystem, though it now trails Upbit's dominant 64.2% market share. The acquisition signals traditional finance's growing appetite for licensed crypto infrastructure, with banking relationships and regulatory approvals outweighing immediate trading volume considerations.

Bitcoin Faces Pivotal 6.24% Rally to Avoid First Post-Halving Down Year

Bitcoin must rally 6.24% by year-end to avoid its first negative post-halving performance in history, according to Nic Puckrin, CEO of a crypto analytics firm tracking BTC price action. The token trades in the mid-to-high $80,000s as December wanes, struggling to gain traction in thin holiday markets.

Glassnode lead analyst James Check counters conventional wisdom, asserting Bitcoin’s momentum can coexist with Gold and silver strength. "These assets aren’t zero-sum," he noted in a Sunday X post, dismissing claims that precious metals must weaken for BTC to thrive.

Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone projects Bitcoin’s gold multiple could halve to 10x by 2026, even if USD prices remain stable. The forecast comes as BTC languishes 30% below its October peak of $125,000—a record shattered days before a market-wide crash.

Bitcoin Investors Absorb Losses as Market Pressure Mounts

Bitcoin holders are capitulating at a loss, with daily realized losses surging to $300 million according to Glassnode's filtered metrics. The sell-off reflects mounting pressure among investors who bought at higher price points, now exiting positions as BTC struggles to reclaim its all-time high.

Short-term holders bear the brunt of the downturn. Their cost basis stands at $99,900—12% underwater compared to current prices. This cohort saw even steeper paper losses in mid-December when the spot price traded at $86,400 against a $101,800 cost basis.

Market data reveals subtle silver linings. CryptoQuant's spent output profit ratio hovers at 0.99, indicating losses remain marginal. Meanwhile, Glassnode calculates Bitcoin's true market mean at $81,100, suggesting potential support levels below the $87,800 spot price.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs See $782 Million Outflows Amid Holiday Liquidity Crunch

Investors withdrew approximately $782 million from US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs during Christmas week, marking the sector's worst outflow streak since early autumn. BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC led redemptions with $193 million and $74 million pulled on Friday alone.

Bitcoin's price held NEAR $43,000 despite the exodus, suggesting structural rather than sentiment-driven selling. Thin holiday trading volumes exacerbated the moves, with total ETF assets dropping to $113.5 billion from December's $120 billion peak.

Market analysts attribute the withdrawals to year-end portfolio rebalancing and temporary desk closures. 'Institutional flows should return with January's trading resumption,' said Kronos Research's Vincent Liu, noting that anticipated Fed rate cuts in 2024 could reignite ETF demand.

South Korea Extradites Lithuanian National Behind $1.18M Crypto Heist

South Korean authorities have extradited a Lithuanian national accused of orchestrating a $1.18 million cryptocurrency theft. The suspect, apprehended in Georgia, allegedly deployed malware disguised as a Windows activation tool to hijack crypto transactions.

Operating from April 2020 to January 2023, the hacker distributed malicious KMSAuto software over 2 million times globally. The malware employed memory hacking techniques to replace victims' wallet addresses during transactions, netting 1.7 billion won ($1.18M) from 840 intercepted transfers.

Eight Korean victims lost 16 million won collectively, with one reporting a single Bitcoin theft worth 12 million won in August 2020 - the case that first alerted authorities. The scheme specifically targeted users of unlicensed activation software, infecting 3,100 wallets worldwide.

Crypto Founder Reveals How To Execute The Perfect Bitcoin Buy

Timing a Bitcoin purchase remains one of the most daunting challenges for investors, particularly in today's bearish market. Conventional wisdom suggests buying during rallies when confidence is high—but Changpeng Zhao's recent Christmas message challenges this approach.

The real opportunities emerge in fear-dominated markets, not euphoric ones. Zhao notes that investors who profit most from Bitcoin's rallies invariably bought during periods of uncertainty, not when headlines turned bullish. This counterintuitive strategy separates opportunistic buyers from those chasing tops.

Market psychology plays a pivotal role. The moments investors later regret missing are typically those when sentiment was at its worst—when weak price action and negative narratives dominated. As Zhao observes, these are precisely the conditions that create ideal entry points.

MicroStrategy's Stock Under Pressure Amid Bitcoin-Backed Financing Strategy

MicroStrategy's stock continues to face significant dilution pressure as the company leverages equity offerings and convertible debt to fund its aggressive Bitcoin acquisitions. Shares have plummeted 70% from their all-time high, with a 55% decline over the past year and 36% year-to-date—vastly underperforming Bitcoin's modest 3.6% drop in 2024.

The company recently sold $700 million in stock, exacerbating supply overhang. Analysts warn that its $1 billion Bitcoin purchase—partially financed through fresh equity and debt—further strains the balance sheet. "Balance sheet leverage comes at a cost," remarked one market observer, noting outstanding shares have surged 20% since December 2025.

While MicroStrategy's BTC holdings now exceed $60 billion against a $45 billion market cap, its reliance on ATM offerings and convertible notes has drawn scrutiny. The model has raised over $900 million for Bitcoin accumulation, but tighter capital markets could amplify dilution risks if the strategy persists.

Bitcoin Faces Suspected Institutional Pressure as ETF Movements Spark Volatility

Bitcoin's recent price turbulence has reignited debates about institutional influence in crypto markets. Analysts point to BlackRock's IBIT ETF transferring hundreds of millions in BTC to Coinbase Prime wallets during market open—a pattern typically associated with institutional selling activity.

The transactions coincided with heightened derivatives activity and thin liquidity, creating ideal conditions for outsized market impact. Binance reportedly executed rapid sell-offs of over 10,000 BTC in the same period, compounding downward pressure.

Market observers suggest these movements reflect a trifecta of ETF rebalancing, risk management ahead of volatility events, and derivatives-related positioning. The concentrated selling during low-liquidity windows amplified price effects, demonstrating crypto's continued sensitivity to institutional flows.

Bitcoin Slumps to $87K as Gold Outshines Crypto in 2025 Risk-Off Rally

Bitcoin's 30% plunge from its October peak to $87,700 starkly contrasts with gold's 70% surge this year. The divergence underscores a market shift toward traditional SAFE havens amid geopolitical tensions and tightening liquidity.

Institutional flows tell the story: Deutsche Bank data shows sustained outflows from Bitcoin products since November, while physical gold holdings hit record highs. The 'digital gold' narrative has faltered as macro uncertainty favors tangible assets.

Thin year-end liquidity amplified the selloff, with Leveraged crypto positions unwinding violently. Gold's 15% gain since Bitcoin's peak at $126,272 highlights a decisive rotation—one that questions crypto's role in defensive portfolios.

Will BTC Price Hit 90000?

Based on the current technical setup and market sentiment, Bitcoin has a plausible path to $90,000, but it faces immediate hurdles.

Technical Perspective: The price at $89,564 is just 0.49% away from the $90,000 target. The key technical barrier is the upper Bollinger Band at $91,869. A daily close above this level would be a strong bullish signal. The supportive 20-day MA at $88,409 provides a nearby floor.

Market Sentiment & Catalysts: The market is grappling with conflicting forces. The need for a 6.24% rally to avoid a negative post-halving year creates a tangible bullish narrative for the coming days. However, substantial ETF outflows and reported institutional selling pressure are counterweights that could cap momentum.

Conclusion: The $90,000 level is within immediate striking distance. A break above the current session's high, fueled by a shift in ETF flows or positive momentum from the 'post-halving year' narrative, could see it tested quickly. However, the negative MACD and institutional pressure highlighted in the news suggest volatility and potential for a pullback to consolidate before a decisive move. The probability of touching $90,000 in the very short term is moderate, but a sustained hold above it requires overcoming the stronger resistance cluster near $91,800-$92,000.